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What shoppers may expect this Christmas season
October 7th, 2009, 8:29 am · 8 Comments · posted by Hang Nguyen, retail reporter
Here are some thoughts from Ronald Stampfl, marketing professor at San Diego State University:
- Retailers will have bought less merchandise for the 2009 season and it will be targeted more tightly on value products. Assortments will be tighter such as fewer colors.
- There will still be heavy promotional markdowns before Christmas since retailers are trying to reach their break-even point before year end.
- There will be less clearance markdowns after Christmas because merchants bought tighter for the 2009 season.
- There will be many short-term promotions such as special pricing until 1 p.m.
- Promotional markdowns of 50 percent off or more will be necessary to get reluctant consumers to spend heavily.
How much do you plan to spend on Christmas gifts this year vs. last year?
Also, the National Retail Federation, a trade group, predicted this week that November and December sales will decline 1 percent this year to $437.6 billion. This number falls significantly below the ten-year average of 3.4 percent holiday season growth. However, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year’s 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3 percent decline in annual retail industry sales expected for all of 2009.
NRF added that some hopeful signs of a recovery have begun to emerge, like better-than-expected sales in August and momentum in the stock market. However, continued consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values will take a toll on spending this holiday season. And, as retailers become even more promotional, certain popular holiday categories like clothing and electronics may experience deflation due to aggressive sales.
More from OC Retail:
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- Irvine Spectrum announces 6 store openings
- Mall near O.C. expands by 37,000 sq. ft., names 3 new stores
- O.C. exclusive furniture store opens at Fashion Island
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- Forever 21 to open 86,000 sq. ft. store at Mervyn’s near O.C.
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- Family may reopen Mervyn’s stores
- South Coast Plaza gives closing date for store
- Irvine to get 40,000-square-foot sports store
- Toy company files for bankruptcy
- Movie-rental chain to close up to 960 stores
For more from OC Retail, see list of links on the right-hand side of this blog.
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Holiday Gift Guide
Get great gift ideas for everyone on your list! Visit The Orange County Register's Holiday Gift Guide. 
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Christmas is supposed to about being with family and friends, not a spend-fest…
good article people really want to know this on October 08, thank you OC reggie…What about the Psycho-Money Ho Women’s shopping Day after Thanksgiving Event? can you put a barometer on that puppy?
I’m doing a little baking my for Christmas. No shopping here.
Those who have not been deeply impacted by the recession will spend the same as last year.
Those who have hit bottom due to the recession will obviously spend none to less.
Those in the middle who still have a job will spend less to the same. The reason being “choice.” Retailers for months have been trying to sell their back stock. It just isnt’ striking the publics fancy. It wasn’t a seller before and won’t be now…especially for a gift.
The gimics of “shop now till midnight” will not really work. As retailers have purchased less “new” items there will be “less” new items to buy.
Those with small children know they can buy whatever and the child is happy.
Teens will only buy what is currently the “item to have.”
Adults will most likely be giving cash and gift cards and let the “gift-ee” buy what they want.
The reason we wont see some of the big sales at the end of the year is because retailers already know there is no money out there and they have cut back. This also puts China in a hard place and a rock, because they must continue to buy our worthless dollar to keep their own economy going. The U.S. government continues to out spend itself and notice I didn’t say Republican or Democrat. The government can play all the games it wants with figures, but Burger King is not a manufacturing job.